Economists say October was probably another disappointing month for the labor market, with more job losses, weak wage growth and another increase in the unemployment rate. The employment report for October will be released on Friday.
The weekly calendar is a busy one, with the first glimpses of October's economic activity. For the most part, economists expect to see month-to-month improvement in the labor market, the manufacturing sector, and auto sales.
| date | report | forecast | previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 2 | ISM | 53.0% | 52.6% |
| Nov. 2 | Construction spending | -0.2% | 0.8% |
| Nov. 3 | Factory orders | 0.6% | -0.8% |
| Nov. 3 | Motor vehicle sales | 10.3 million | 9.2 million |
| Nov. 4 | ISM services | 51.5% | 50.9% |
| Nov. 4 | FOMC | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Nov. 5 | Jobless claims | 520,000 | 530,000 |
| Nov. 5 | Productivity | 7.3% | 6.6% |
| Nov. 5 | Unit labor costs | -4.6% | -5.9% |
| Nov. 6 | Nonfarm payrolls | -150,000 | -263,000 |
| Nov. 6 | Unemployment rate | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| Nov. 6 | Average hourly earnings | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nov. 6 | Consumer credit | -$9.0 billion | -$12.0 billion |
Job losses probably moderated again in October, economists said ahead of the report. The median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch is for a seasonally adjusted decline of 150,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.9%, a 26-year high.
That would be the fewest jobs lost in any month since July 2008, but it would be the 22nd consecutive month of falling payrolls, totaling some 8.35 million jobs. At the worst of the recession, the economy was losing 700,000 jobs a month.
Most economists are cautiously optimistic that hiring will resume as the economy continues to improve, but few expect a turnaround before the end of the year.
"With the economy now growing at a solid pace, employment should fall more slowly, especially given the strong productivity growth and rapid layoffs throughout the recession," said Joseph Brusuelas, an economist for Moody's Economy.com.
Productivity
Productivity - output per hour worked -- is the reason the economy can grow while employment is still falling. Companies have been squeezing more work out of their remaining employees.
Productivity gains have boosted profits and kept inflation low, but they have been devastating for workers, who have seen their hours cut and their wages frozen. The total number of hours worked in the U.S. nonfarm business sector has now fallen back to 1996 levels, but the output of the remaining workers is up nearly 39% over that period.
In the third quarter, productivity probably increased at a 7.3% annual rate after a 6.6% increase in the second quarter, the survey says. The quarterly productivity numbers will be released Thursday.
Economists say the workforce is about as lean as it can get right now.
"This type of productivity growth can only last a few quarters, because employers can only push their current workforce to do more with less for so long," wrote Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital. "If output growth remains strong, as we expect, hours worked and payrolls should be rising around the turn of the year."
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